Let’s Not Overreact

Let’s Not Overreact

One week down. 10 matches played. Every club has had a chance to flex their new squads, kits, and tactics. It’s time to tear up any preconceived notions that we made in the summer as we are now faced with cold, hard, emotionless facts. 

Obviously, I’m being glib. But, it is truly tempting to reframe all your ideas based on the first week of results. I consume a lot of media about the Premier League: articles, podcasts, highlights shows, tactical analysis. Almost without exception, these pundits, podcasters, and authors have begun to walk back certain predictions they’ve made, reframing their expected shape for the season. I think it’s crucial that we change our expectations when presented with evidence. So, I’m here not to plead for stubbornness - but as an evangelist for patience. 

Two examples have dominated the fall out of Match Week 1: Newcastle and Wolves. The Magpies of Newcastle dominated a highly-touted Aston Villa squad, absolutely stealing their lunch money in a 5-1 victory. St. James Park was bouncing, new signings Tonali and Barnes got on the scoresheet, Alexander Isak looked super-saiyan. 

But, it was one match - and a home opener no less. I have read and heard more than a dozen very smart people already try to walk back their predictions for the Tyneside club, with many folks previously predicting that they’d finish either just out of or barely in the lower European places. It’s true they were transcendent on the day, and they very well could push for the top two spots in the table. But, the Premier League season is barely even in the oven yet, let alone fully baked. Their next three matches see the Magpies face Manchester City away from home, host Liverpool, before traveling to Brighton. Adding to that, a major challenge for the squad is how they’ll cope with balancing European competition with a relatively thin squad. Before anointing an heir apparent to the title, let’s at least see how they react to our previously voiced concerns. 

In the case of the midlands club, Wolves defied expectations in their own way - by playing… well? Many sources, myself included, labeled them as a crisis club entering the first week of fixtures. And, frankly that was justified. They’d lost a highly regarded manager only a few days before their first match, and there was no guarantee that Gary O’Neil could get up to speed quickly. However, then a meaningful match kicks off and they show fluidity, skill, and most importantly an identity against Manchester United. Their players work well together, and Matheus Cunha looks like the second half of a Rocky training montage. 

But, they still lose. Cruelly, unfairly - but they still lose. I expected Wolves to struggle this season, especially with scoring and with the transition to a new manager. After seeing them play once, I’m less worried about the manager as O’Neil seems to have tailored his approach for the skills of this group of players. But, the lack of goals remains a concern. I still imagine they’ll stay up, but I think that any reports of their complete renaissance are wildly premature. 

I am not looking to single out the above clubs. There are other examples from the weekend: Tottenham won’t be able to keep teams out; Liverpool have remained stagnant; all three promoted teams will struggle. These could all end up being the case, and I want to be clear that I am not writing this to defend my predictions. I know so much of what I guessed will prove to be wrong - and I promise to admit and acknowledge it when it does. 

I know that it’s foolish to hope for this, like believing your club will only win if you eat the right breakfast on match day or sit in the right chair. But let’s let the dust settle, let’s let the transfer window close, let’s see how new signings, new managers, and shock injuries shape the league. Let’s be patient, let’s let the storylines steep, and let’s at least withhold judgment until September, perhaps? That’s all I ask.