Premier League Reflections:
5 Storylines to Watch - October Edition
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5 Storylines to Watch - October Edition
After another dreary international break (apologies if you love your National Team), the Premier League is about to kick off yet again. We’re approaching the sloggy section of the competition, with only one more international interlude before the grinding and exciting December schedule kicks off. While it’s still early in the campaign, early becomes too late without you realizing it - and clubs are starting to become entrenched in their sections of the league table. As we enter this run of fixtures, here are a few questions to consider that will help shape the story of this season.
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1. Which club will blink first and change managers?*
Predicting managerial departures is never a savory activity - after all these are real people with livelihoods and aspirations to consider. But, it is a cold hard fact of the football world. However, remarkably, after 8 matches for each club and two international breaks, none of the 20 Premier League clubs have started combing LinkedIn for new head honchos. For a few clubs, this is a major reason to celebrate: Everton have found a vein of form; Gary O’Neil has dug in at Wolves; Steve Cooper and Marco Silva at Forest and Fulham respectively have delivered solid starts. But, even at the clubs rooted to the bottom, the same names have remained on office doors.
Who, if anyone, will not be in place at the next international break (a traditional time for managerial overhaul)? Paul Heckingbottom has had rumors circulating around him for weeks, but has held onto the reins at Sheffield United, despite recording 0 wins and posting a 0-8 loss. The Blades have shown bursts of potential, but how long will the club soldier on with a 0 in the win column? Similarly, Bournemouth and Andoni Iraola are without a victory and have conceded the third most goals in the league. The solid base and slick transition tactics have not come to pass for the Spanish manager. That said, the Cherries have had a Herculean start to the campaign, and - had Iraola been sacked - I would have been one of many calling it premature. But, if the South Coast club isn’t able to win either of their next two matches against Wolves and Burnley, there will have to be hard conversations.
The other 2 promoted clubs round out the bottom four, who are in danger of being cut adrift from the safety of midtable very early in the season. Luton Town have pulled the high card and are currently safe in 17th on goal difference. Rob Edwards has gallons of goodwill at Kenilworth Road, and it’s incredibly unlikely that the club will make any change to his employment while the club is in line for survival. Even if they dip into the relegation spots, it would take an immense loss of confidence that doesn’t feel close at hand for the board to move against him. Vincent Kompany is in a trickier position: he blew away the Championship last year in his first go in English club management and earned admirers along the way. But, the Clarets keep losing matches, and they keep losing matches the same way - unable to back up bright starts. This could be a teething issue or something more ingrained. He’s earned time, but the owners at Burnley have invested a lot in a quick promotion back to the top. They may not want to risk another fall.
We could well be back here in a few weeks with everyone in the same position. Or, one of these managers could be out of a job. Or - and this can’t be discounted - a new crisis could emerge from somewhere (Manchester United?) and an entirely different candidate could be updating his resume. It bears repeating that sackings are a part of the modern game. They’re not something to root for or to cheer on, but this is the latest we’ve waited for a first departure in 7 of the last 10 seasons.
*Caveat: I don’t wish for anyone to be fired. This question is not meant to be callous, I promise.
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2. Is there a team near the bottom with an easy way out?
As a palate cleanser to the first question, let’s get positive! While there is a distinct group of teams plying their trade at the bottom of the table, there may also be reason to believe that one or several of these clubs can start to look up the table.
Bournemouth, currently in 19th, have the best case to make with two winnable home matches awaiting them against Wolves and Burnley. Beyond those two contests, they still have Sheffield United, Luton Town, Nottingham Forest, and Fulham to play before the end of the year. A decent return of points from those fixtures would likely lift the Cherries out of the relegation places and, just maybe, create some momentum for their new manager that they can bring into matches against more favored sides.
Burnley have underperformed on their expectations this season, which comes down to a certain amount of tactical inflexibility from their manager and a crew of players still adjusting to a new league. With a reasonable upcoming run of fixtures, these next three games could be a turning point for Vincent Kompany and the Clarets.
While it’s harder to make a case for Sheffield United or Luton Town, they deserve a moment of consideration. Sheffield United have… Manchester United, Arsenal, Wolves, and Brighton. So, the easy answer to this question is no: they don’t have an easy way out. Luton, on the other hand, have Forest, Villa, Liverpool, and Manchester United. So, yeah… also a no for the Hatters. None of these 4 clubs have a truly easy way out; that’s just not how this works. But, if one of them can string together a few results before the next break, there can be reason for optimism.
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3. Will a team pull away at the top?
Refreshingly, the top of the table is pickle jar tight with only 4 points between first and sixth. Early in the season it seemed a foregone conclusion that Manchester City would walk away with the league, but - following 2 successive defeats - their domination looks less certain. In fact, Tottenham sit in first place, with Arsenal behind only on goals scored. City lurk 2 points behind, with Liverpool rounding out the top 4, and Aston Villa and Brighton are peeking over the hedges on 16 points.
This begs the question: can any of these clubs become clear front runners in the next chunk of matches? On paper Liverpool have a friendly run, with matches against Everton, Nottingham Forest, Luton Town, and Brentford. Would going 4 for 4 in these contests be enough to set them atop the pile? Arsenal’s run looks a bit more untidy, with Chelsea and Newcastle among their next opponents. City’s looks even more challenging with Brighton, Manchester United, and Chelsea queuing up. All that said, Ange Postecoglou’s side (who also don’t have European or Domestic Cup commitments) look the most likely to enter the November international break on top, with a (mostly) kind run ahead of them. The Premier League will be roughly one third of the way done when the next break rolls around, a solid stretch from any of these clubs would help shape the title race.
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4. Will Chelsea or United climb the table?
While it’s still a bit early to put too much weight on the Premier League table, a couple of names stand out - wedged firmly in the middle. Manchester United and Chelsea both carry great expectations and have had bumpy starts to the campaign. Also, their form will have major impacts on the shape of this season. The early results could be blips, and either or both could be turning a corner. But, with West Ham, Brighton, Newcastle, and Aston Villa all looking like genuinely pushing for a spot in Europe next season, it’s going to take consistency to avoid falling away for any club with upper-table aspirations.
Chelsea sit in 11th position, fresh off of two straight league wins (3 in all competitions), and there was a whiff of optimism permeating West London before the break. Partly, this was well founded: Mauricio Pochettino was always going to need a bit of time to institute his system and the club is still wracked with injuries. However, two wins (against Fulham and Burnley) isn’t enough evidence to prove the turnaround, and the Burnley result was largely on Raheem Sterling’s shoulders. While Sterling is a tremendous talent, he’s yet to stack up consistent performances in a Chelsea shirt. However, despite this dose of pessimism, there is momentum at Stamford Bridge. A visit from Arsenal on Saturday afternoon will be a great litmus test for this young Chelsea squad.
Manchester United ended their last run of matches with a late comeback win that was far from convincing - a theme for them in their four victories so far this season. The Red Devils have also lost 4 matches and boast a negative goal difference. There’s a bubbling discontent ready to boil over in the Old Trafford stands which is compounded with every mistake or poor decision. However, they begin their next spurt of games with a visit to bottom of the table Sheffield United which should provide them an opportunity to move in the right direction before next weekend’s Manchester Derby. Erik Ten Hag’s side is in desperate need of positivity, which they’ll need to manufacture themselves.
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5. Are City’s struggles as simple as Rodri?
Pep Guardiola and Manchester City have been so dominant for so long that we really should have learned our lesson about doubting them - even after two successive defeats. In this case, the Manchester club has a clear excuse: their talismanic defensive midfielder, Rodri. His 3 match absence has coincided with their 2 losses in the league as well as their exit from the Carabao Cup. Is their muddy patch of form all down to their key player’s red card? Or, have clubs begun to solve the riddles that Pep’s boys bring to the pitch? Erling Haaland is also dipping - he hasn’t scored in any of his last 4 matches with City. Is his form tied to the stability that the Spanish midfielder provides? Is Kevin De Bruyne’s missing dynamism finally costing the Champions?
Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton await City in their first match of the 4 game stretch. It’s one of the most intriguing contests of the weekend, pitting together top teams led by rockstar managers. It will also be Rodri’s first league match back. Normal service could certainly resume, but it’s not exactly the opponent Pep would hand pick given the choice. Compounding the issue, City then face Chelsea (who are unpredictable but have a wealth of talent) and Manchester United in their next 3 matches. Perhaps Rodri drops back in and City go on to win 4 from 4 and any worries about them are relegated to the dustbin of foolish ideas. But, for the first time this season, the club is vulnerable. In a season where several clubs might fancy themselves title-contenders, finding form quickly can make or break a campaign.