A Quick Disclaimer…

As I made this predicted table, the Harry Kane to Bayern Munich and the Moisés Caicedo transfer saga took major steps forward. Neither have been finalized, but this underlines the point that these predictions are a snapshot and saying anything with confidence before the transfer window closes is a fool’s errand.

That said, here is my predicted table, along with some notes on the reasoning for each club’s placement. It represents my best guess at point of publishing, and I’m sure in retrospect there will be a few hilarious missteps. But that’s the fun, isn’t it?

1. Manchester City

Despite there perhaps being a case that this year’s starting 11 has taken a step back (or at the least not improved), the Blue half of Manchester just has too much in their locker. Additionally, the chasing pack of teams look to have raised their level, and I believe the rest of the traditional “Big 6” - along with Brighton, Newcastle, and Villa - will take too many points off one another for any one of them to catch City.

2. Arsenal

The Gunners look to have done some of the best business of the summer, with Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, and Jurriën Timber joining up. I imagine they will make a good account of themselves, but I can’t see them getting off to as fast a start as last year and winning enough matches against the chasing pack to lift the Premier League trophy.

3. Liverpool

The Reds feel unfinished and need a player or two through the door still to be seriously considered title challengers. Count me as someone who thinks the preseason pessimism from Liverpool supporters is a bit overblown, but the defense looks extremely patchy. It may be that a perfect addition comes through the door, but barring that, it feels more likely that the club will improve on last year without seriously challenging City. 

4. Manchester United

Erik ten Hag had a successful first campaign, and has been able to make some smart additions to the side. In particular André Onana should add a potent new dimension to their attack. However, scoring goals was their biggest challenge, and I’m not convinced that Rasmus Højlund (especially considering he starts the season injured) dominates the league in his first season enough to pull United up the table. 

5. Chelsea

There has been a substantial amount of upheaval at Stamford Bridge, which isn’t always a great recipe for success. However, I trust Pochettino to mold the team into a dangerous if inconsistent force. I think there will be matches where they look like world beaters and matches where they look like a spilled jigsaw puzzle. One consolation for the Blues is that, due to the reorganized Champions League, 5th spot in the Premier League is very likely to be good enough to qualify.

6. Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs’ situation mirrors Chelsea to an extent: new manager, talented group of players, transformed tactics to which the squad will have to quickly adapt. At time of writing, Harry Kane looks almost certain to join Bayern Munich, and that would be a tremendous loss. But, with reinvestment and a striker that fits Postecoglou’s system already on the books in Richarlison, they may be able to absorb his departure relatively smoothly. Like Chelsea I imagine they will be inconsistent, but time to train without European football and a skilled manager should help them improve on last season.

7. Brighton & Hove Albion

Seventh would represent a slight regression from last season for the Seagulls, who seem to have added well to cover for departures and the added stress of the Europa league. I believe they will still be one of the most exciting teams to watch and a favorite of neutrals. But, the chance that a high profile club from across Europe poaches De Zerbi combined with a squad largely unfamiliar with balancing domestic and continental competitions makes it impossible for me to presume they’ll finish higher than they did last season.

8. Newcastle

Newcastle played incredibly well last season en route to a fourth place finish and Champions League qualification. However, it’s unlikely that the team will be able to keep up their extremely stingy defense, considering they overperformed the underlying statistics and they’ve added a whole additional competition on top of it. Even with their additions, this squad doesn’t look quite ready to take a serious swipe at the Champions League (which I think they will) without losing some domestic momentum.

9. Aston Villa

The Lions are another club with unfamiliar European commitments to attend to, and who may struggle to replicate their form with the additional stress. Their additions are strong, but with Buendía out for an extended time, they’ve lost a critical element of their tactical flexibility and will need to replace him when they might have wanted to spend elsewhere. A full season of Unai Emery should make for a solid team, but their shaky depth and the Spaniard’s proclivity for deep cup runs could make league success hard to grasp.

10. West Ham

I think that I am in the minority in believing that West Ham are going to have a surprisingly strong season. They are stretched very thin right now and desperately need reinforcements with Europa league commitments. However, the Hammers appear to be taking steps to fill out the squad, and - frankly - many of the teams listed below shouldn’t strike fear into a full-strength West Ham. If they can build a solid base of points by beating the teams around and below them, mid table solidity is wholly possible. 

11. Brentford

The West London club is missing their central man, Ivan Toney, until January, and it would be perfectly reasonable to assume that they’ll take major steps back this campaign. But, they have a great manager in Thomas Frank, a few solid options in Mbeumo and Wissa, and some young players who may step up. I believe they’ll feel the impact of Toney’s absence, but that it will only result in finishing a few places lower than last year.

12. Crystal Palace

Roy Hodson is back and will try to continue the hot streak that he brought when taking over in South London last season. They’ve so far avoided major turnover in the squad, but lose Zaha without bringing in players that scream that the club is truly pushing for a top half finish. They have fewer warning signs than some of the remaining teams, and Hodgson has repeatedly shown that he can deliver comfortable safety for the Eagles.

13. Fulham

Despite previous expectations that he’d leave for a club in Saudi Arabia, Aleksandar Mitrović may end up staying at Craven Cottage. This would be great news for the club, who may have struggled to replace his goals. If he were to depart, they’d likely need to move quickly to add an additional attacking force as Carlos Vinicius and Raúl Jiménez haven’t shown consistency in recent campaigns. This season may be more of a grind, but the West London club should stay up with relatively low stress.

14. Bournemouth

Full disclosure, I put Bournemouth in 14th before they completed the signing of Alex Scott from Bristol City. Maybe Scott by himself doesn’t completely change their outlook, but he’s representative of several smart, strategic, and affordable buys that the Cherries have completed. Andoni Iraola will need time to get his style of play across, and there may be some absolute pastings that the club has to endure - but they seem to have a clear direction that is being underpinned by support. If they avoid needing to compromise on their style too much, they should stay up.

15. Burnley

Vincent Kompany will bring an unrecognizable Burnley back to the Premier League. They’ll aim to play possession based, attractive football, and they’ve bought aggressively to ease their reintegration. However, it’s tough to know how well this plan survives contact with the enemy as the saying goes. There will likely be compromises needed, and, while I believe they’ll stay up, there may well be matches where they’re simply pushed aside.

16. Wolverhampton Wanderers

It’s never a good sign when you enter the new season already as a front runner for current crisis club - but Wolves have done just that. Frustrated with the financial situation of the organization, Julen Lopetegui has left and is replaced by Gary O’Neil. O’Neil kept Bournemouth up last season, and - admittedly with very little preparation - he gets to lead the club from day one. The club has been unable to add meaningfully, but there is a core of players who, if they stay healthy, are of Premier League quality and able to keep the club in the top-flight. Goals will be at a premium, and it’s likely that there will be more down days than not. 

17. Everton

After two seasons flirting with relegation, the Toffees face a new season in the experienced hands of Sean Dyche. He is a capable manager, but the club has done very little to turn around the ship, and their financial situation means the water they’re sailing in is precarious indeed. This campaign could well be another struggle, and there are many factors which point to a spot in the relegation zone. I just can’t help but think that Dyche will add just enough steel and make them hard to beat, leading them to stay up narrowly.

18. Luton Town

While a whole lot of the media coverage of Luton Town’s rise to the Premier League from non-league football has painted the Hatters as massive underdogs, it should be noted that they were firmly the third best team in the Championship last year. They should make their home stadium a fortress, and stick to a lot of the tactics that got them here. However, I still feel that their squad hasn’t been refreshed enough to compete at the highest level. This may well be a season in which the Hatters consolidate and come back stronger with more resources and experience. 

19. Nottingham Forest

Forest are in my 19th position less because of where they are as we enter the season and more because of what could happen. They have a horrendous opening few matches - many on the road where they’ve struggled - and they still may sell one of their best players in Brennan Johnson. If enough goes against them, they could start to implode, especially if Steve Cooper is either let go or walks out of frustration. Of the teams I have 

in my predicted relegation zone, they’re the squad I feel has the best chance of bucking expectations, but I can’t help but worry about the volatility boiling under the surface.

20. Sheffield United

If Wolves are the current crisis club, Sheffield United are very close second. Sadly, it’s not the manager or the players fault, but financial woes that put them behind the eight ball before their first match kicks off. They’ve sold two of their best players in Iliman Ndiaye and Sander Berge - Berge to fellow promoted club Burnley, no less - and their new additions skew more towards Championship level than top flight. If Paul Heckingbottom can keep the Blades up, it would be a tremendous achievement, but it just doesn’t seem likely.